Regime Threat Matrix
Live Controller
0.85
Siloviki dominance in Kremlin decision-making over political managers.
0.25
Value the regime assigns to presenting competitive multi-party ballots.
72%
Size and volatility of the covert anti-war / liberal protest voting bloc.
88%
Bureaucratic hurdles and defect rate applied to liberal candidates.
Observe how rhetoric tolerance shifts across different party platforms.
Security Calculations
Threshold Breached
Contagion Risk Index
0.72
Critical threshold: 0.45
Façade Payoff
0.25
International / Dom. Theatre
DECISION: DISQUALIFY / BAN
BARRED
Security services conclude that allowing Yabloko to campaign presents an unacceptable risk of anti-war coordination. Even a low-single-digit vote tally provides an official venue for latent public dissent to crystallize into active street contagion.
Counterfactual Branch Comparison
Protest Rally Probability:
84% vs 14% (Barred)
Opposition Coordination:
High (Consolidating)
Façade Credibility Cost:
-18% (Subordinated)
Security Apparatus Event Stream