01 / INFRASTRUCTURE ROUTE & OBJECTION MODEL
FRESHWATER WEST MEMORIAL
Fan & Cultural Objection Density
850 Signatories
Regulatory & Legal Review Window
12 Months
02 / PREDICTION MARKET ORDERBOOK & FINANCIAL HEDGE WORKBENCH
Project Rerouted by Q4
0.84
+16.0% probability
Delay > 12 Months
0.82
+14.0% probability
On-Time Completion
0.18
-22.0% probability
Project Canceled
0.09
-3.0% probability
Estimated Delay
14 Mo
Cost Overrun (GBP)
£38.5M
Net Unhedged Exposure
£31.57M
Timeline Monte Carlo Distribution (Months)
P50 = 23.4 Months
Optimal Hedge Strategy: Buy 38.5M YES on Delayed >12M @ $0.82 to lock cap exposure