Equity Offering & Discount Arbitrage Simulator

Model mega-scale discounted equity raises — bookbuild pricing, supply shock, arbitrage short delta, and AI capex ROIC hurdles

Offering Mechanics

Offering Price
$105.225
New Shares Issued
96.935M
Post-Money Shares
2,516.935M
Equity Dilution
4.01%
Implied Fair Price
$108.25
Supply Shock Impact
-5.87%

AI Capex ROIC Hurdle Analysis

AI Capex Deployed
$8.67B
Annual Incremental AI Op Income Required
$1.431B
Breakeven ROIC Hurdle
12.18%
Projected ROIC
16.50%
Spread vs Hurdle
+4.32pp
Payback Quarters
~24

Supply Absorption & Trading Corridor

Sensitivity Matrix: Discount vs Hedge Allocation

Discount \ Hedge

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