EV Charging Infrastructure vs Adoption Gap Simulator

Projection Scenarios 5-Year Horizon

Annual EV Growth Rate 28%

Annual Charger Additions 15,000 / yr

Initial EV Fleet Baseline 1,500,000

Initial Public Charger Ports 120,000

Target Vehicles Per Charger 15 : 1

Benchmark Standard: The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and international mobility studies recommend between 10:1 and 18:1 vehicles per public charging port. Higher numbers signify queued queues, charger congestion, and range anxiety.

5-Year Cumulative Forecast Telemetry Lagging behind adoption

Year 5 Vehicles-per-Charger 26.85

Year 5 Total EV Fleet 5,235,840

Year 5 Public Chargers 195,000

Infrastructure Status Lagging behind adoption

Year	EV Fleet	Charger Ports	Vehicles / Charger	Gap Status

Export computed simulation points, deficit trajectories, and parameters.

Domain Methodology & Citations: Modeled after public charging availability analyses published by Ars Technica, NREL 2030 Infrastructure Needs study, and S&P Global Mobility. Compounded annual fleet growth curves compound continuously while charger port deployment runs on capital deployment horizons.

Verification Invariant: At 28% annual EV growth starting from 1,500,000 vehicles and 15,000 new ports annually starting from 120,000, Year 5 yields 5,235,840 EVs and 195,000 ports, producing an acute infrastructure deficit of 26.85 vehicles per port.