WoodMac EV Trio Forces Simulator

Annual Mileage Fuel Savings

$1,420

Net savings per 10,000 miles vs ICE vehicle

TCO Parity Crossover Year

2027

Mass-market unsubsidized segment tipping point

2030 Global EV Share

Projected new passenger vehicle adoption rate

Economic Trio Forces

Battery Pack Cost ($/kWh) $115

Cell + pack manufacturing dynamics. $100/kWh is traditionally key ICE parity threshold.

Gasoline Price ($/gal) $3.65

Refinery gate & retail fuel dynamics affecting operational cost differential.

Grid Power Cost ($/kWh) $0.14

Blended home charging & fast-charging electricity tariff.

Manufacturing Scale Efficiency 1.25x

Gigafactory throughput, platform sharing, & supply chain optimization multiplier.

EV Market Adoption S-Curve (2020–2035) Projected Market Share %

Vehicle Segment Parity & Battery Cost Decay

Vehicle Segment	Battery Pack Requirement	Estimated TCO Parity	Status
Sedan / Compact	55 kWh	2026	Parity Achieved
SUV / Crossover	80 kWh	2027	Near Term
Commercial Fleet / Truck	135 kWh	2029	In Progress