Event Loss & Attendance Risk Analyzer

Scenario Presets:

Model Parameters

4-Year Horizon (2024–2027)

Event Identity

Initial Year Attendance 85,000

20,000 Baseline Attendance 250,000

Annual Attendance Decline Rate 6.5%

-5% (Growth) Year-over-Year Erosion +20% (Crash)

Average General Admission Ticket $25

$5 Gate & Advance Blended $80

Food & Beverage Yield / Attendee $18

$0 Concession & Ticket Net $60

Annual Fixed Operating Costs $1,200,000

$200k Security, Staging, Permits $4.0M

Operating Cost Inflation Rate 4.0%

0% Municipal / Police Cost Escalation 15%

Note: Calculations run locally in-browser. All operational assumptions model direct event cash flows before non-operating charitable endowments.

Cumulative Health Status

Critical Operating Deficit

Risk tier based on 4-year cumulative reserve drain

Total 4-Year Operating Deficit

$1,420,500

Aggregate shortfall across simulated 4-year horizon

Year 4 Projected Attendance

65,542

Down -22.9% from initial baseline

Final Year Net Yield / Head

-$7.42

Revenue per head minus operating cost load

4-Year Financial Trajectory & Attendance Breakdown

Compare aggregate ticket/concession income against rising municipal operational overhead

Year-by-Year Financial Ledger

Tabular Audit

Horizon Year	Attendance	Gross Revenue	Operating Cost	Annual Net Cash Flow	Cumulative Position

Strategic Governance Recommendation

Based on the multi-year trajectory, this event exhibits structural fixed-cost overhang. Recommended Executive Action:

Restructure overhead and reprice vendor yields

Annual decline compounding over 4 years exceeds allowable margins. Staging, police security, and municipal sanitation contracts require immediate renegotiation to preserve festival solvency.

Audit Handoff & Civic Report Data

Export calculated multi-year ledger data, risk factors, and sensitivity metrics into persistent formats.