Evoke - Bally's M&A Takeover & Guidance Withholding Financial Model

Implied Offer Premium

+36.8%

vs Base Price (95.0p)

Annualized Risk Arb Yield

14.2%

Gross Spread: 36.8p over 6m

Combined Net Debt / EBITDA

4.18x

Net Debt: £1,150m | EBITDA: £275m

Implied Takeover Probability

78.0%

Withholding Risk Cost: +150 bps

Deal Parameters

Bally's Offer Price (Pence) 130.0p

Standalone Evoke trading price: 95.0p

Projected Cost Synergies (£m) £35.0m

Annual run-rate cost elimination

Regulatory Approval Delay (Months) 6 Months

Impacts annualized risk-arbitrage return calculation

Withholding Risk Premium (bps) +150 bps

Cost of capital penalty due to guidance opacity

Evoke Standalone EBITDA (£m) £240.0m

Baseline EBITDA before deal synergies

EBITDA & Combined Valuation Bridge Waterfall (£m)

Dynamic D3 Waterfall & Guidance Withholding Impact

Scenario Matrix & Stress Testing

Scenario Name	Offer Price	Cost Synergies	Reg Delay	Combined EBITDA	Net Debt / EBITDA	Arb Yield (Ann.)	Deal Status / Risk

Target: Evoke plc / Bally's

Offer Price: 130.0p

Implied Premium: 36.8%

Leverage Ratio: 4.18x

Arb Yield: 14.2%

Takeover Prob: 78.0%