Macroeconomic & Sentiment Levers
+32%
Baseline meal: $11.50 → Effective: $15.18
$4.15 / gal
Drive-thru commute penalty across 3.2 mi roundtrip
35%
Elasticity: Low (-1.65), Mid (-1.05), High (-0.45)
Consumer Surplus Delta per Meal
-$2.84
Net welfare loss compared to 2021 equilibrium
Market Share Allocation & Migration Retained: 43.8%
Fast Food Retention
43.8%
Baseline: 68.0%
Home Cooking Defection
+14.2%
Grocery pantry shift
Fast Casual & Deli Capture
+10.0%
Cross-price trade-up/down
| Cohort | Fast Food | Home Cooking | Supermarket Deli | Fast Casual |
|---|