FDA Approval Workbench RETATRUTIDE (LY3437943)

Bayesian Milestone Decision Tree & Prediction Market Valuation Engine
Bayesian Fair Odds 45.8%
Market Price 28.0¢
Mispricing Gap +17.8%
Scenario Controls
Milestone Probabilities
Phase 3 TRIUMPH Success ($P_1$) 62.0%
NDA Acceptance & Review ($P_2$) 88.0%
PDUFA Final Approval ($P_3$) 85.0%
Prediction Market Contract
Cumulative Success Path
Regulatory Failure / CRL Path
Active Phase Node
Valuation & Mispricing Analysis
Contract Signal
UNDERVALUED
Market contract trading at 28.0¢ implies a 28.0% probability, underpricing Bayesian clinical fair value of 46.4% by +18.4%.
Obesity/Metabolic Benchmark Context
Clinical Milestone Industry Benchmark Current Model
Phase 3 Success 61.5% 62.0%
NDA Acceptance 88.5% 88.0%
PDUFA Approval 85.0% 85.0%
Overall Approval 46.2% 46.4%
Trade Synthesis Note
FDA Approval Workbench Proof Anchor: Retatrutide Bayesian model active with 46.4% cumulative approval fair value vs 28.0¢ prediction market price.
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