8-Quarter FOMC Interest Rate Path Projection
Comparing standard Institutional Continuity (Taylor Rule) vs. Strategic Novelty Regime
Continuity (Baseline)
Strategic Novelty
Timeline Quarter:
Q4 Projection
Dual-Mandate Trajectories
Inflation & Unemployment Convergence
Yield Curve Shift Response
1M to 30Y Treasury Term Structure
FOMC Regime Comparison Matrix
Key economic indicators and divergence metrics under current scenario
| Policy Regime | Terminal Rate (Q8) | Inflation Gap (Q8) | Sacrifice Ratio | Credibility Index | Policy Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Institutional Continuity | 3.65% | +0.30% | 1.42 | 94 / 100 | Baseline |
| Strategic Novelty (Warsh) | 4.05% | +0.15% | 1.68 | 88 / 100 | +0.40% |