Fed Funds Target
5.25%
Current Policy Target
Taylor Suggested
4.85%
Rule Benchmark
Projected CPI (12M)
3.20%
Target: 2.00%
Projected Unemployment
4.90%
NAIRU: 4.20%
Credibility Index
78
Institutional Score
Policy Divergence
40 bps
Fed vs Taylor Gap
Macroeconomic Dynamics & Forecast Trajectory
Inflation (CPI) vs Policy Target Trajectory
Unemployment & Labor Transmission
Current Scenario: Warsh Dilemma (Stagflation + Political Strain)
Policy Briefing & Telemetry Output
Status: Ready
Federal Reserve Policy Briefing for the fed-policy-trilemma-70 simulation model. Adjust rate targets, observe Taylor Rule benchmarks, and evaluate institutional credibility under executive pressure.
| Parameter / Output Metric | Simulated Value | Benchmark / Note |
|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds Rate Target | 5.25% | User Steering Target |
| Taylor Rule Benchmark | 4.85% | Standard Taylor Formula (2.0% Target) |
| 12M CPI Inflation Forecast | 3.20% | Phillips Curve Transmission Effect |
| 12M Unemployment Forecast | 4.90% | Labor Market Sensitivity |
| Institutional Credibility Index | 78 | Scale 0 - 100 (Resistance to Pressure) |
| Policy Divergence | 40 bps | Gap vs Taylor Recommendation |