US CPI Scenario Controls
Preset Scenarios
-10 bps
0.18%
3.10%
US 10Y Yield
4.15%
10Y Delta
-8 bps
Headline YoY
2.80%
Terminal Rate
5.12%
Scenario Decision Summary
A -10 bps downside US CPI surprise drops September Fed hike odds to 12.5%, lowers US 10-year Treasury yields by 8 bps to 4.15%, relaxes global liquidity constraints, and drives a projected 1.25% gain in Nikkei 225 and 1.60% gain in Hang Seng.
September FOMC Target Rate Probability Distribution
Pause Dominant (72.5%)
Cross-Border Yield Arbitrage & Capital Flow Engine
US Rates → FX → Asian Indices
Asian Market Impact Engine
Click row for sectors
Hang Seng (HSI)
+1.60%
USD/HKD: 7.810
Tech Beta: 1.45x
Nikkei 225 (NKY)
+1.25%
USD/JPY: 147.20
Exporter Sensitivity
KOSPI Benchmark
+1.10%
USD/KRW: 1332.5
Semi Flow Sensitivity
BSE Sensex
+0.85%
USD/INR: 83.15
Domestic Liquidity
Mechanism Note:
Lower US inflation reduces Treasury yield differentials, dampening USD strength and sparking net equity portfolio inflows into high-beta Asian tech and exporter hubs.