Policy Controls
FOMC Terminal
SCENARIO PRESETS
4.25%
3.00% (Dovish)
4.25%
5.50% (Hawkish)
72
0 (Compliant)
50 (Balanced)
100 (Deadlock)
4.75%
84%
Projected Rate
4.5%
Compromise -25 bps
Board Vote Split
7-5 Dissent Risk
12-Member FOMC Tally
Policy Status
High Friction / Rates Adjusting Down
Board Friction Resistance
Market Confidence
84%
Credibility Maintained
FOMC Policy Trajectory Curve (Q1 - Q4 Projections)
Projected Path
Warsh Target
Board Friction Drag
FOMC 12-Member Board Alignment & Vote Breakdown
Threshold: 7 Required for Passage
Under the Warsh Tough Board Test scenario, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh aims for a rapid rate reduction to 4.25%, but the Federal Reserve Board exhibits high resistance (Friction Index: 72/100). Five hawkish members dissent against a half-point cut, forcing a calibrated compromise down to 4.5% with a fragile 7-5 Dissent Risk majority.