Fed Rate Cut & CPI Market Impact Simulator

Macro Inputs

Macro Scenario Presets

July Payrolls Added 114k

Consensus expected: 175k | Surprise drop eases fears

August 12 Expected CPI (MoM) 0.20%

Core inflation target range: 0.15% - 0.25%

Expected YoY Inflation 2.90%

Prior month print: 3.0% YoY

Current Fed Funds Target 5.25%

Upper limit baseline: 5.25% - 5.50%

Sept FOMC Cut Probability

85.0%

▲ +35.0% vs pre-payroll

10-Year Treasury Yield

3.82%

▼ -18 bps shift

Simulated S&P 500

5,680

▲ +60 pts (Record High)

Baseline vs Simulated

Implied Futures

FOMC Meeting	25 bps Cut	50 bps Cut	Probability Spectrum

Rate & Inflation Beta Model

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Macro Proof Status: Active Simulation (July Payroll Drop Baseline)