Reuters

CPI Report Yield & Rate Cut Probability Simulator

Post-July Jobs Shock Baseline (-50k)
25bp Rate Cut Odds 62.5% Upcoming FOMC Implied
50bp Rate Cut Odds 35.0% Aggressive Easing Prob
2Y Yield / 10Y Yield 3.95% / 3.85% Inversion: -10 bps (Inverted)
Est. Portfolio Return Impact +0.00% Duration Price Sensitivity
Classified Macro Risk Regime

Soft Landing / Gradual Easing

In-line inflation allows Fed to prioritize labor weakening with steady 25bp rate cuts.

Soft Landing
US Treasury Yield Curve (Tenors: 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, 30Y)
Baseline (3.95%/3.85%)
Simulated Curve
FOMC Meeting Policy Outcome Probabilities
Quantitative Scenario Matrix Breakdown
State: Active Simulation
Tenor / Metric Baseline Level Simulated Level Delta / Shift Market Implication
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