Reuters Inflation Day

US Fed Rate Decision Simulator

FOMC REACT ENGINE v2.4
MODEL: TAYLOR-RULE ADAPTIVE
Historical Presets:
Taylor Implied Rate
4.88%
Target Reaction Model
Real Fed Funds Rate
1.98%
Policy Rate minus Inflation
Policy Stance
Slightly Restrictive
Restrictiveness Level
Fed Hold Prob
72.1%
Target Rate Hold
Macro Data Inputs
Core CPI (MoM) 0.30%
Excludes volatile food & energy prices
Supercore CPI (MoM) 0.35%
Services ex-housing inflation metric
Headline CPI (YoY) 2.90%
Top-line consumer price index trend
Unemployment Rate 4.10%
Labor market slack indicator
Target Neutral Rate (r*) 2.50%
Long-run equilibrium policy rate
Market Rate Probabilities HOLD 72.1%
Cut: 9.5%
Hold: 72.1%
Hike: 18.4%
12-Month Rate Trajectory Horizon
Taylor Implied Path
Market Expectation Curve
Inflation Target Path (2%)
Canonical Policy State Output
Taylor Rate: 4.88%
Real Fed Rate: 1.98%
Policy Stance: Slightly Restrictive
Rate Hike Prob: 18.4%
Rate Hold Prob: 72.1%
Rate Cut Prob: 9.5%
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