Fed September Meeting Rate Probabilities & Macro Transmission Workbench

Macro Regimes (Presets)

Inflation & Labor Inputs

Headline CPI (MoM) +0.15%

Core PCE Inflation (YoY) 2.60%

Unemployment Rate (U3) 4.30%

Real Neutral Rate (r*) 0.90%

Reuters Morning Bid Context: "Stocks climbed and bond yields eased after fresh signs of cooling inflation. What does it mean for September's Fed meeting?"

Transmission: Lower inflation prints ease real policy constraints, steepening rate cut pricing and easing Treasury duration discount drag.

Implied 25bps Cut 72.5% Baseline FOMC move

Implied 50bps Cut 21.0% Aggressive easing odds

Hold (No Cut) 6.5% Pause / Hawkish delay

Est. 2Y Treasury 3.94% Policy sensitive tenor

Est. 10Y Treasury 3.82% 2s10s: -12 bps

September FOMC Target Rate Implied Probability

US Treasury Yield Curve Shift (Pre vs Post Print)

Macroeconomic Transmission Channel Matrix

Macro Scenario	Core PCE / CPI	Implied Sept Cut	Taylor Rule Rate	2Y Yield	10Y Yield	Curve (2s10s)	Equity Impact

FOMC September Transmission Brief