Jackson Hole Policy Signaling & Yield Curve Workbench
Simulating Warsh Balance Sheet Discipline, Fed Silence & Rate Transmission
Signaling Stance
Warsh Silence
Macro Shocks & Transmissions
Inflation Shock (PCE Core)+75 bps
Neutral Real Rate (r*)1.25%
Market Credibility Score88 / 100
Balance Sheet Runoff (QT)Accelerated ($95B/mo)
Transmission Regime Verdict
Higher-For-Longer Stance with Term Premium Re-Anchoring
Terminal Policy Rate
4.65%
Peak Fed Funds
2-Year Treasury
4.42%
Policy Path Anchor
10-Year Treasury
4.18%
Benchmark Real Cost
10Y Term Premium
+42 bps
Supply & Duration Risk
2Y Infl. Expectation
2.35%
Breakeven Proxy
Fin. Conditions Delta
+0.45
FCI Tightening Index
U.S. TREASURY YIELD CURVE MORPH
Baseline
Simulated
8-QUARTER MACRO IMPULSE PATH
Fed Funds
Core PCE
GDP Growth
Yield Curve Deconstruction Dossier
| Tenor | Simulated Yield | Expected Avg Policy Rate | Term Premium | Spread to 2Y |
|---|