Jackson Hole Fed Rate Path Modeler | Monetary Policy Engine

Policy Variables Restrictive

Headline Inflation (π)3.2%

Core PCE (π_core)2.8%

Neutral Real Rate (r*)1.25%

Current Fed Funds (i_prev)5.38%

Unemployment Rate (u)4.3%

Natural Unemployment (u*)4.1%

Policy Inertia (Smoothing ρ)0.80

Classical Taylor Target 4.95%

Next FOMC Inertial Rate 5.29%

Real Restrictiveness +2.575%

Terminal Policy Rate 4.25%

8-Meeting FOMC Rate Path Projection Rate Corridor & Inflation Glidepath

Stagflation Shock vs. Labor Cooling Matrix Prescribed Fed Funds Rate Target