FOMC Statement Text & Semantic Filter
Highlight Guidance StripsCompare standard forward guidance language against Kevin Warsh's proposed streamlined policy statement stripped of explicit bias and economic thresholds.
Baseline Guidance Text
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have slowed in recent months but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.
Stripped 'Mystery' Text
Recent indicators suggest economic activity continues to expand at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions remain stable, and inflation remains slightly above target. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee has decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25 to 5.50 percent. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence...
Simulated Yield Curve & Market Dispersion
Mean Expectations
Mystery Uncertainty Fan
Central Bank Mystery Mechanism: Stripping explicit forward guidance increases the term premium and widens interest rate expectations variance along intermediate (2Y-5Y) and long-end (10Y-30Y) Treasury yields.