Fetterman Party Alignment & Steel Industry Prediction Workbench
Modeling John Fetterman's cross-party defense of Pennsylvania steel alongside Trump, evaluating Kalshi's 56% baseline market odds of leaving the Democratic caucus before 2028.
Realignment Levers
Model Drivers
Scenario Presets
56%
Kalshi prediction market contract odds on Fetterman departure by 2028
85%
Bipartisan domestic steel defense, tariff votes & Nippon Steel opposition
75%
Tone and public signaling of willingness to partner across aisle on industrial labor
65%
Democratic grassroots backlash and progressive primary threat level
Sub-Policy Component Multipliers
USW (Steelworkers) Protectionist Index+14.2%
Senate Energy / Fracking Freedom Accord+9.0%
Progressive Caucus Distance Factor+9.1%
Simulation Analytics & 2028 Horizon
Active Model
Computed Switch Probability
68.4%
+12.4% vs Kalshi baseline
Alignment Category
Independent Steel Coalition Aligned
Projected Affiliation Status
Market Momentum
High Volatility / Momentum Up
Kalshi Order Book Signal
Projected Milestone
Late 2027 Caucus Transition Window
Estimated Shift Window
Probability Trajectory 2026 → 2028• Modeled Path vs Baseline
Deterministic Model Engine: Base + Policy Multipliers [Steel: 0.18, Conv: 0.12, Primary: 0.14 - 21.0 Offset].