The Economist Analysis

Florida Political Realignment Explorer

Benchmark:

Statewide Victory Margin Gauge 25 Electoral Votes

DEM 48.8% GOP +537 VOTES GOP 48.8%

County Margin Shift

+20% DEM EVEN +20% GOP

Demographic Shift Simulator Realtime Counterfactual

Conservative In-Migration Flow +0%

Hispanic Voter GOP Swing +0%

Suburban Education Re-sorting 0%

Key Realignment Clusters

County Micro-Inspector 2000 Baseline

Miami-Dade County FIPS: 12086

2000 Margin DEM +5.3%

Simulated Margin GOP +11.2%

Registered Voters 1,500,000

Net Vote Delta +247,500 R

Realigning Driver Evidence

Miami-Dade Shift: Flipped from Dem +16.2% (2016) to GOP +11.5% (2024), powered by Hispanic working-class realignment.

I-4 Corridor: Tampa to Orlando exurbs shifted +14 points Republican via rapid retiree and family migration.

Turnout Asymmetry: Republican voter registration edge expanded from -250k (2008) to +1,000,000+ (2024).