🛢️ Crude Oil Price Trajectory
$105.00 / bbl
$105
$78
0.045
Direct CPI impact per $10 sustained crude price increase.
📊 Baseline Macro Economic Indicators
⚙️ Taylor Rule & Fed Reaction Function
1.50
0.50
0.75
Higher inertia delays Fed rate adjustments, amplifying inflation persistence.
Peak Projected CPI
4.42%
Q3 2026
Target Fed Funds
5.75%
+50 bps Hike
Surprise Hike Prob
38.4%
Monte Carlo Dist.
10Y Yield Dynamic
4.68%
Inverted -57 bps
12-Quarter Forward Projections
CPI Inflation, Policy Rate, and 10Y Yield under Oil Shock
Headline CPI
Target Rate
10Y Treasury
FOMC Decision Probabilities Next Meeting
Rate Hold (5.25%)
48.2%
Surprise +25bp Hike
38.4%
25bp Rate Cut
11.8%
50bp Rate Cut
1.6%
Policy Diagnostics
Crude oil surge to $105/bbl elevates headline CPI peak to 4.42%.
Taylor Rule prescribed rate is 5.85%. Policy smoothing delays reaction, creating rate gap.
Yield Curve Inversion:
-0.57%
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