FOMC Rate Decision & Consensus Simulator

Live Space Session
Target Fed Funds: 5.25% - 5.50%
Space Begins: 12:55 PM EST
Status: Ready for 12:55 PM EST Session
UW

FOMC, with Unusual Whales • Live Macro Space

Featuring @josephwang (Fed Guy), @super_macro, and @stevehou

487 in Space • View Original Post
Rate Mixer
Adjust market-implied probabilities
Rate Cut (-25 bps) 15%
Pause / Unchanged 70%
Rate Hike (+25 bps) 15%
Sum Probability: 100%
Consensus Bias
Neutral / Pause Favored (70%)
Base-case pause expectation priced with balanced terminal rate guidance.
Active Speaker Focus:
Policy Distribution & Reaction Curve
Calculated live from weighted outcome matrices
100% 50% 0% 15% CUT (-25bp) 70% PAUSE (Unch) 15% HIKE (+25bp)
Simulated Market Reaction
Baseline Equilibrium
Bonds steady, equities range-bound ahead of dot plot
US 10Y Yield
4.28% (0 bp)
US 2Y Yield
4.62% (-1 bp)
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.12%
Gold (XAU/USD)
+0.20%
DXY (Dollar)
103.85 (-0.05%)
Projected Volatility
Elevated (VIX ~18.5)
Space Experts Panel
Speakers in the Unusual Whales Space
Joseph Wang @josephwang
Pause Bias

"The Fed's focus remains on balance sheet QT taper and maintaining money-market liquidity buffer. Rate changes are off-table today."

Fed Balance Sheet Specialist Weight: 0.85
Super Macro @super_macro
Softening Signal

"Labor data revisions indicate underlying cooling. Dot plot distribution might signal higher cuts in future quarters, even if paused now."

Macro Vol & Duration Analyst Weight: 0.78
Steve Hou @stevehou
Tail Risk Watch

"Options straddle pricing implies asymmetric upside in vol if Powell signals 'higher for longer' persistence in the press conference."

Quantitative Risk Strategist Weight: 0.82
Briefing Dossier
Generating scenario memo...
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