LIKELIHOOD IS NOT CERTAINTY
Price the script, not the story.
IMPLIED PROBABILITY · OVERROUND · NO-VIG MARKET · MODEL EDGE · RAW EXPECTED VALUE ·
Outcome, odds, model %
The market quotes a price. Your model states a belief. Calibration tests the distance between them without pretending the next match is known.
Load the complete illustrative 1X2 market to begin.
MODEL TOTAL
NOT A PREDICTION
Read the three probability lanes
Quoted implied
One divided by decimal odds. These three values exceed 100% because the price includes margin.
No-vig market
Each implied probability divided by the total implied probability. This removes overround proportionally.
Your model
A conditional belief that must total 100%. Raw EV equals model probability times decimal odds minus one.
Positive arithmetic is not a promise. It only means the entered probability would exceed the break-even price if the model were calibrated over many comparable events.
No live data, outcome prediction, bet placement, legal eligibility determination, or stake recommendation. Gambling can cause harm; do not risk money you cannot afford to lose.