Polymarket

Headline Probability & Odds Calculator

Source: @Polymarket
BREAKING: Democratic Socialist Francesca Hong reveals Thanksgiving is her favorite holiday, declaring, "I actually love it."
Market Parameters Real-time Execution
YES Contract Price / Implied Probability $0.65 (65.0%)
Investment Amount ($) $100.00
Simulated Order Size / Depth Impact 0.0% Slippage
Models price movement through thick/thin order book depth
Converted Odds & Payoff Matrix PROCESSED
Potential Payout
$153.85
153.85 shares
Net Profit / Yield
$53.85
+53.85% ROI
Decimal / Multiplier
1.538x
7/13 Fractional
American Odds
-185
Avg Price: $0.650
Payoff Profile Across Probability Spectrum Interactive D3 Chart
Execution Price Impact Curve

Contract payoff arithmetic under entered assumptions

Read the explanation

The saved headline contract tool divides one hundred entered dollars by point sixty-five price to obtain about one hundred fifty-three point eight five fractional contracts. Each modeled winning contract settles at one dollar, giving that same gross payout and fifty-three point eight five net. Bars compare budget and conditional gross at three pixels per dollar. These are source assumptions, not live market quotes, verified event probabilities, actual executable fractional shares or investment advice. No trade is sent. A hypothetical two percent slippage multiplies point sixty-five by one point zero two to point six six three, reducing modeled contracts and winning payout to about one hundred fifty point eight three for the same one hundred budget. Bars compare zero and two-percent conditional payouts at three pixels per dollar. Source caps effective price at point nine nine nine. This is a selected cost model, not measured order-book depth or an execution guarantee. Losing contracts still pay zero. Choosing NO uses one minus YES price before applying slippage. At hypothetical YES point sixty-five and zero slippage, NO costs point thirty-five, so one hundred dollars buy about two hundred eighty-five point seven one modeled contracts. Bars compare side prices at five hundred pixels per dollar. Greater conditional payout does not mean greater expected profit; source prices are not verified chances. Native second preset, complete stable JSON summary and reset preserve original arithmetic. Actual event outcomes, investment suitability and all other controls remain unverified.

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