Geopolitical Deal Probability & Macro Impact Terminal

DIPLOMATIC VECTOR CONTROLS HEURISTIC ENGINE v4.2

SCENARIO PRESETS

Backchannel Activity Level 85

Swiss/Omani diplomatic shuttle frequency & working-group bilateral contacts

Diplomatic Rhetoric Score 78

Public statement tenor, de-escalation tone, presidential wire repeats

Sanction Pressure Index 62

OFAC enforcement intensity, secondary shipping waivers, frozen escrow liquidity

DEAL PROBABILITY

74.2%

Weighted diplomatic convergence

CRUDE OIL RISK PREMIUM

-$4.35 / bbl

Brent/WTI geopolitical discount

GOLD SAFE-HAVEN FLOW

-1.8%

Bullion defensive demand shift

VOLATILITY (VIX) SHIFT

-2.1 pts

S&P 500 implied volatility easing

EQUITY RISK SENTIMENT REGIME

Risk-On (Energy & Defense Weighted)

Broader cyclicals gain while defense contractors and crude futures price out conflict premium

PROBABILITY DENSITY & ACCELERATION CURVE OPERATING POINT: P = 74.2% | Z-SCORE +1.64

CROSS-ASSET DIPLOMATIC SENSITIVITY MATRIX T+5 EXPIRATION WINDOW

ASSET / BENCHMARK	MACRO CHANNEL	IMPACT DELTA	ESTIMATED REGIME

INSTITUTIONAL BRIEFING DOSSIER

Automated summary export with scenario parameters and econometric shifts.