Geopolitical Statement & Market Risk Matrix

WIRE SOURCE & PRESETS STEP 1

Geopolitical Wire Benchmarks

Breaking Wire Dispatch

IRAN'S SECURITY CHIEF REZAEI, ACCORDING TO INTERPRETER, SAYS ALLEGATIONS OF IRANIAN PLOT TO ASSASSINATE TRUMP'S SON ARE A LIE -AL MANAR TV INTERVIEW

Escalation Scenario Mode

Speaker Authority Weight: 85%

Translation / Medium Ambiguity: 30%

STATEMENT PROVENANCE GRAPH (D3) LAYERED ATTRIBUTION

TRANSMISSION & SCENARIO PROBABILITY MONTE CARLO DRIFT

Rhetorical Posture Only 68.0%

Sanctions / Diplomatic Reprisal 24.0%

Kinetic Escalation Tail Risk 8.0%

MARKET TRANSMISSION IMPACT DESK ESTIMATES

CRUDE PREMIUM (BBL)

+$0.65

ATTRIBUTION CONF.

MED-HIGH

ESCALATION RISK SCORE

ELEVATED DIPLOMATIC

Low Immediate Kinetic Shift

ASSET SENSITIVITIES

Brent Prompt Crack +0.82% ($76.45)

Gold (XAU/USD) +0.35% (Safe-Haven)

Defense Equity Beta +0.48% (Muted)

VIX 1M Tail Skew +1.15 pts (Out of Money)

INTELLIGENCE BRIEF DOSSIER STRUCTURED OUTPUT

Generating intelligence brief...