Geopolitical Exposure Simulator

Model bilateral tariff shocks, security umbrella withdrawals, and regulatory misalignment to measure an economy’s strategic vulnerability and identify tactical hedge maneuvers.

Standard Presets:

Exposure Assessment

Simulated macroeconomic and strategic vulnerability score
Elevated Strategic Exposure
GDP Headwind (Annual) -0.92% £21.4B direct trade drag
Strategic Exposure Index 67 / 100 Critical bilateral squeeze
Defense Spending Gap 0.7% GDP £16.1B required uplift
Geopolitical Leverage 34 / 100 Constrained swing capability
Strategic Vulnerability Radar (0 = Protected, 100 = Exposed)
Component Risk Breakdown
US Tariff Impact 62%
European Trade Friction 54%
Security Guarantee Deficit 78%
Supply Chain Redirection Risk 48%
Recommended Strategic Hedging Postures Dynamically calculated priority options
Domain Strategic Friction Policy Mitigation Path Feasibility
Simulation recalculated. Model operating on current baseline.

The Fracture Mechanism

When an assertive "America First" executive policy coincides with a sovereign state that has already detached from its regional single market (such as post-Brexit Britain), the state suffers from a bilateral scissor crisis.

Tariffs on goods shipped to the United States cannot easily be absorbed by pivoting to the European Union due to border sanitary checks, customs declarations, and rules-of-origin audits. Simultaneously, demands for unilateral defense burden-sharing require budgetary reallocation from public services to military deterrence.

  • Trade Divergence: No transatlantic free trade agreement exists without deep concessions on agricultural standards.
  • Defense Umbrella Risk: A transactional alliance model forces medium powers to commit at least 2.5% to 3.0% of GDP to sustain baseline deterrence.

Strategic Hedging Levers

To reduce the Strategic Exposure Index below 40, middle-power states must deploy a coordinated tri-pillar defense:

  • Veterinary & SPS Accords: Negotiating bilateral mutual recognition pacts with the European Union relieves food, chemical, and manufacturing friction without requiring political re-entry.
  • European Pillar within NATO: Establishing shared joint procurement with France, Germany, and the Nordic group hedges against unilateral US withdrawal.
  • CPTPP Integration: Expanding preferential zero-tariff market corridors across Indo-Pacific economies to offset US and European slowdowns.

Assigned tariff, defense and friction terms

Read the explanation

The source export-contraction term is tariff times one point six times entered US export share over one hundred. Hypothetical export share twenty percent and tariff ten give three point two; tariff twenty gives six point four. Bars share seventy pixels per assigned percentage point. These coefficients and shares are scenario assumptions, not actual measured export losses or current tariff policy. The source target defense share is assigned three percent of GDP. Hypothetical entered two leaves gap one; two point five leaves gap point five, both floored at zero. Bars share four hundred fifty pixels per gap point. The source later weights this gap with entered security reliance and caps an index. Neither the target nor resulting index is verified policy or calibrated defense risk. At hypothetical friction forty, the source base term forty times point zero two four is point nine six. Deep-customs multiplier point five five gives point five two eight; bilateral-only multiplier one point two five gives one point two. Bars share four hundred pixels per assigned drag point. These labels do not validate actual treaty effects. Original raw JSON/reset/native four-width allocation and first-footer checks preserve the simulator.

Enjoy this tool? Build your own with Super