German Industry China Policy & De-risking Matrix

Merz Administration Scenario Engine
Strategic Levers
Outward Investment Scrutiny 70%
Critical Mineral Stockpiling 85%
Dual-Use Tech Export Controls 60%
Inward FDI Screening 80%
Diversification Subsidies (Asia/EU) 75%
Supply Chain Dependency & Friction Map Click nodes to isolate sector
Strategic Assessment: German industry bodies (BDI, VDMA) emphasize that while China remains Germany's largest trade partner (€254B in 2023), critical single-source dependencies in battery chemistries and pharmaceutical precursors demand targeted federal state guarantees.
Policy Impact Metrics Live Model
Resilience
78
Target: ≥75/100
Trade Friction
62
Index (0-100)
Vulnerability ↓
34.5%
De-risked baseline
Automotive & Mobility High Exposure
Resilience: Moderate (68/100)
Critical Chokepoints: Battery cells, Rare earth magnets (NdFeB), Cathode precursors.
Chemicals & Pharma Severe Exposure
Resilience: Guarded (55/100)
Critical Chokepoints: Active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), Specialty precursors, Acetylene derivatives.
Mechanical Engineering (VDMA) Moderate Exposure
Resilience: Strong (82/100)
Critical Chokepoints: Precision tooling components, Industrial casting blanks.

Assigned policy lever coefficients

Read the explanation

The source overall resilience formula adds base twelve point two and weighted policy levers. Subsidy coefficient is point two four. Hypothetical subsidy sixty contributes fourteen point four; eighty contributes nineteen point two before final rounding. Bars share twenty-five pixels per assigned term point. The coefficients are imposed calibration, not validated policy effects, actual resilience measurements or current German or Chinese positions. The source trade-friction sum uses outward coefficient point two eight. Hypothetical lever fifty contributes fourteen; eighty contributes twenty-two point four. Bars share twenty pixels per assigned term point. Other levers contribute separately and the total is rounded. This term does not establish actual trade costs, legal restrictions or observed diplomatic friction. In the source vulnerability-reduction sum, FDI coefficient is point zero eight and stockpiling coefficient point one four. Equal hypothetical ten-point increases contribute point eight and one point four before rounding the full label to a tenth. Bars share three hundred pixels per assigned label point. The percentage label is not a calibrated reduction in real vulnerability. Complete raw native JSON/reset/four-width allocation and first-footer checks preserve the policy matrix.

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