Policy Knobs & Economic Inputs
Annual Bundeswehr procurement, ammunition transfers, and direct equipment grants.
Majority threshold is 316 seats. Lower headroom risks snap election or failed confidence votes.
High cost of living intensifies voter sensitivity to foreign aid expenditures (Schuldenbremse debate).
Share of surveyed electorate actively endorsing heavy arms deliveries.
"German Chancellor Friedrich Merz vowed to press on with military support for Ukraine even as opposition to funding for Kyiv helps propel the country’s far-right party."
Far-Right Polling
26.5%
+4.1% vs 2025 baseline
Ukraine Support Index
78.4
Material combat delivery tier
Fiscal Headroom
€4.2B
Under constitutional debt brake
Coalition Stability
Stable under pressure
12 seats above collapse
12-Month Momentum Projection
Far-Right Polling Trajectory (%)
Fiscal Headroom (€B)
Coalition Majority Risk Line
Confidence Vote Risk Evaluator
Moderate
Bundestag Majority Buffer
+12 Seats
FDP / Rebel Faction Pressure
Elevated
Snap Election Probability
24.5%
Fiscal & Defense Trade-Offs
Active
Defense Spending % of GDP
2.18%
Domestic Welfare Reallocation
-€2.8B / yr
Merz Leadership Resolve Index
Strong Commitment