German EBITDA at Risk €28.4B ▲ +€11.2B under shock
Critical Chokepoints 23 Items 11 High Criticality Tier-1
Avg. Substitution Lead Time 22.4 Mos ▼ -4.1 mo via Friendshoring
BDI Industry Sentiment Index 46.2 / 100 Cautious Realignment

Policy Presets

BDI & Federal Guidelines

Interactive Policy Levers & Stress Test

Targeted De-Risking
EU/German Tariff on Chinese EVs & Tech 25%
Chinese Raw Material Export Controls Medium Quota
Outbound FDI Vetting & Guarantees Strict Dual-Use
Friendshoring Subsidies & Capital €15 Billion

Sector Exposure & Vulnerability Matrix

Click row to inspect specific supply-chain chokepoints
Industrial Sector China Revenue % Input Dependency Lead Time Vulnerability Index Projected EBITDA Δ

Automotive & E-Mobility Chokepoint Inspection

High Strategic Risk

Severe reliance on lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathode precursor chemistry, permanent neodymium magnets, and Chinese local JV revenue streams.

Dynamic Policy Brief & Executive Assessment

CONFIDENTIAL ADVISORY | BDI / BMWK TRADE MODELING SCENARIO: MERZ TARGETED DE-RISKING