Win Total Probability Density (17-Game Binomial Curve)
Simulated Density
Projected Mean Target
HISTORICAL ROOKIE QB TURNAROUND COMPS
Benchmarked Against Jaxson Dart Model
| Quarterback & Team | Season | Rookie Rating | Regular Record | Playoff Result | Turnaround Archetype |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Dart (NYG) | 2026 Proj. | 82.5 | 9-8 | 58.4% Odds | Active Model |
| C.J. Stroud (HOU) | 2023 | 89.4 | 10-7 | Won Wild Card | Elite Franchise Pivot |
| Dak Prescott (DAL) | 2016 | 86.2 | 13-3 | Divisional Round | High Supporting Cast |
| Russell Wilson (SEA) | 2012 | 84.7 | 11-5 | Divisional Round | Defense-Anchored |
| Robert Griffin III (WAS) | 2012 | 83.8 | 10-6 | Wild Card Round | Dynamic Dual-Threat |
| Daniel Jones (NYG) | 2019 | 74.2 | 3-9 (3-13 team) | Missed Playoffs | Giants Predecessor |
EVALUATION SYNTHESIS REPORT
Model Timestamp: Live
Based on Micah Parsons' endorsement ("The Giants are going to be a really good team"), setting Jaxson Dart's rookie rating to 82.5 alongside a 78.0 supporting roster yields a projected 9-8 record and a 58.4% playoff probability. Social velocity indicates High Momentum with a 1.05x engagement boost across 162,758 modeled impressions.