The Brutal Economics of 1st & Goal Turnovers
In standard NFL expected points models (like those from nflfastR and Brian Burke's pioneer research), having 1st & Goal inside the 5-yard line is worth between +5.2 and +5.9 Expected Points (EP). Offenses convert this field position into touchdowns over 72% of the time.
When a ball carrier fumbles and the opponent recovers in the end zone or inside the 5, the defending team immediately assumes possession worth approximately -0.6 to -1.1 EP to the original offense. This produces an immediate net EPA swing of -5.8 to -7.0 points on a single snap—statistically equivalent to conceding a defensive touchdown.
| Down & Distance |
Avg Pre-Play EP |
TD Probability |
EPA of Lost Fumble |
| 1st & Goal at 1 |
+5.88 pts |
84.2% |
-6.72 pts |
| 1st & Goal at 3 (Swift) |
+5.42 pts |
76.5% |
-6.28 pts |
| 1st & Goal at 5 |
+4.95 pts |
67.1% |
-5.75 pts |
| 1st & 10 at Own 20 |
+0.41 pts |
21.8% |
-3.80 pts |
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did D'Andre Swift fumble against the Vikings?
On goal-line inside handoffs, defensive linemen shoot interior A/B gaps. When contact occurs while the back is still accelerating forward and fighting for the goal line, defensive line helmet impact or punch attempts dislodge the football before the carrier can secure it with both arms.
How does Win Probability (WP) swing differ in Q2 vs Q4?
A goal-line turnover in Q2 with 1:45 left deprives the offense of a high-confidence score and flips momentum, causing a ~20% to 25% WP drop. In the 4th quarter with under 3 minutes remaining in a one-score game, the same goal-line turnover drops offensive win probability by upwards of 45% to 65%.
Can this tool evaluate other goal-line play types?
Yes. You can switch between Inside Zone, Power Lead ISO, Toss Sweep, and Play-Action passes across any yard line between the 1 and 8 to evaluate how penetration and ball security alter strip probability and outcome distribution.