Pre-Fumble Offense EP
+6.20
Opponent 1-Yard Line (3rd & Goal)
Post-Turnover EP
-0.85
Patriots Own 20-Yard Line
Net EPA Swing
-7.05 pts
Goal-Line Defense Stop Value
Patriots Win Prob Shift
+28.4%
44.2% → 72.6%
Line of Scrimmage
Fumble Location
Patriots Recovery Spot
Goal Line / Touchback
Why Goal-Line Turnovers are Game-Deciding EPA Anomalies:
When an offense reaches the 1-yard line, their Expected Points (EP) peaks near +6.20 points (high probability of TD). A fumble recovered in the endzone or at the goal line by the Patriots defense reduces the offense's EP to 0 and transfers possession to New England at their own 20 (EP of -0.85 for the former offense), creating a massive net -7.05 EPA swing on a single snap.