Goat Parasite Grazing & Resistance Bayesian Simulator

Haemonchus contortus Rotational Management & Refugia Dynamics

🌾 6-Paddock Pasture Map & Larval Heatmap

Day 15 (Rotation Cycle 3)

Click any paddock to move the goat herd. Darker red indicates higher L3 Barber Pole Worm larval density. Green bar shows pasture grass height.

Initializing Pasture Simulation Grid...

TST only treats high-FEC goats, keeping untreated worms in Refugia to suppress drug resistance.

5 days / paddock
2 Days (Rapid) 30 Day Total Rest 14 Days (Overgrazed)
Warm & Moist (Optimal L3)
Dry/Hot (High Larval Death) Warm/Moist Cool/Wet (Extended L3)
95.0% Effective
70% (Resistant) 95% (Baseline) 99% (Highly Susceptible)

📊 Herd Diagnostic Indicators

FECRT Reduction 92.5% Target ≥95% Efficacy
Herd Avg EPG 240 EPG Eggs per Gram
Refugia Reserve 34.2% Untreated Parasites
Resistance Risk Low Bayesian Posterior

Bayesian FECRT Posterior Curve

Pr(Anthelmintic Resistance)

Combines pre- and post-treatment fecal egg counts with prior herd records. A shift right indicates accumulating resistant alleles.

Pre-Treatment Mean FEC: 1,450 EPG
Post-Treatment Mean FEC: 108 EPG
Bayesian Resistance Probability: 4.8% (Credible Interval 2-9%)

💡 Parasite Management Principles

  • Barber Pole Worm (Haemonchus contortus): Highly prolific blood-sucker causing lethal anemia in small ruminants.
  • Refugia Preservation: Leaving 20-30% of healthy low-egg goats untreated maintains susceptible worm genes in pasture, preventing total dewormer failure.
  • Rotational Resting: L3 larvae decay over 30-40 days resting period, breaking the re-infection cycle before goats return.
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