Special Report · Structural Labor Economics
Graduate Job Market & Career Scarring Simulator
Investigate how entry-level hiring freezes, junior role automation, and down-skilling displacement trigger credential inflation and multi-decade wage hysteresis for graduating cohorts.
Graduate Underemployment
41.8%
+12.4% vs equilibrium
Matched High-Skill Share
Of 1.84M cohort entrants
Starting Wage Penalty
-14.6%
Year 1 real salary depression
10-Yr Cumulative Loss
$84,300
Mean scarring per affected graduate
1. The Displacement Cascade: 100 Graduates at Ingress
Matched Role
Downskilled / Service
Master's Shelter
Search Unemployment
2. 10-Year Wage Scarring Path
Benchmark Cohort
Simulated Cohort
3. Career Hysteresis Over 5 Years
Matched Career
Stuck Underemployed
Why Starting in a Slump Causes Multi-Decade Scarring
Labor economics research (Oreopoulos et al., Kahn) demonstrates that entering the labor market during an entry-level contraction does not merely delay initial employment—it degrades long-term search capital. Graduates taking non-college roles face lower on-the-job human capital accumulation, severe employer signaling penalties, and diminished bargaining leverage that persists for 8 to 12 years after graduation.