Graduate Job Market & Scarring Simulator

Econometric Hysteresis & Underemployment Cascade Model
Based on Economist Analysis (2025/2026)
10-Year Cumulative Scar
-$84,200
-14.2% lifetime earnings lost
Yr 1 Underemployment Trap
48.5%
Graduates in non-college jobs
Parity Delay Horizon
Yr 9
Time to catch baseline cohort
Observed Simulation Result: Under a 35% hiring shock and 25% AI compression, the cohort experiences a Yr 1 wage penalty of $14,200 with an estimated 10-year cumulative hysteresis loss of $84,200.

Understanding Macro Career Scarring (Earnings Hysteresis)

What is Career Scarring? When a cohort graduates into a depressed entry-level job market, the negative effects persist for decades. Unlike temporary income loss, entry-level scarring delays initial skill acquisition, forces graduates into lower-tier firms, and anchors initial salary negotiations at lower baselines.

The "Structural Collapse" Shift: Recent research highlighted by The Economist emphasizes that modern entry-level job downturns differ from past cyclical recessions. The combination of entry-level AI substitution (automating routine junior tasks) and corporate efficiency drives has permanently flattened the entry-level hiring funnel, forcing an "underemployment cascade" into non-college jobs.

The graduate simulator accumulates assigned shock terms before wage decay

Read the explanation

The source initial penalty combines several assigned terms. Its recession contribution is entered depth times point four. Illustrative depths twenty and forty contribute eight and sixteen percentage points before the other terms and cap. Bars share twenty-two pixels per contribution point. The coefficient is a modeling assumption, not a measured recession effect or validated employment forecast. The source adds entered unemployment duration times one point five to the initial penalty. Illustrative duration values two and four contribute three and six percentage points before other terms. Bars share fifty-five pixels per contribution point. This expression does not prove a causal wage effect or an actual graduate history; source salary baselines and sensitivity assumptions remain unverified. The source caps the total shock penalty at sixty-five, then divides by one hundred to obtain a fraction. An illustrative total fifty stays fifty percent; total eighty becomes sixty-five. Bars share five pixels per capped percentage point. Later source years decay the fraction exponentially and compound the baseline separately. Complete actual downloaded ten-year CSV, genuine reset, native tool allocation and first-footer responsive preservation remain checked.

Super generates helpful tools and automates fact-checking across the internet proactively. If you enjoyed this tool, build your own with Super and share it with a friend.