Gulf Maritime Shock & Cross-Asset Market Impact Workbench

Macro Intelligence Engine
Grounded in Reuters Report on Gulf shipping tension & Asian equities
Scenario Presets
Maritime & Commodity Controls
Strait Transit Capacity 75%
War Risk Insurance Multiplier 3.20x
Cape Rerouting Delays 6 Days
Baseline Brent Price ($/bbl) $78.50
Strategy Export
Simulated Brent Price $86.35 +10.00% vs Base
Tanker Freight Inflation +42.5% Global Surcharge
Energy Sector (Asia) +6.8% Net Outperformance
Aviation Sector (Asia) -8.4% Fuel Cost Squeeze
Persian Gulf Trade Transit & Price Dynamic Vector Network Interactive D3 Flow Engine
Asian Equity Regional Sector Stress Impact
Index / Market Baseline Level Sector Exposure Projected Delta Stress Level
Simulated Brent: $86.35 (+10.0%) | Tanker Freight: +42.5%

The oil-shock model assigns price and sector coefficients

Read the explanation

The source capacity-deficit fraction times twenty-two contributes to the price premium. Transit capacity seventy-five and fifty percent gives deficits point two five and point five, adding five point five and eleven percentage points. Bars share thirty pixels per premium point. These coefficients and saved prices are unvalidated modeling inputs, not actual oil-market forecasts. The source adds rerouting days times point four five to price premium. Six and fourteen days contribute two point seven and six point three percentage points. Bars share fifty pixels per premium point. Insurance and capacity terms are separate. The relation does not independently measure real freight friction or current supply disruption. For an illustrative ten-point crude premium, source energy-sector change is ten times point six eight, and aviation change is negative ten times point eight four. Bars show positive energy magnitude six point eight and negative aviation magnitude eight point four at fifty pixels per point. Direction is explicitly opposite. These are model assumptions, not investment advice. Complete JSON and CSV/reset/native first-footer checks remain preserved.

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