Scenario Controls
65%
Confidence in de-escalation & regional accord
20.5 Mb/d
Daily crude & condensate transit integrity
12.5%
Assessed tail risk of tanker or terminal strikes
4.2 Mb/d
Rapid mobilizable buffer outside choke points
$78.50
Current active trading market price
58 Days
Days of forward consumption cover
Equilibrium Clearing & Risk Decomposition
LIVE MODEL
Model Fair Value
$75.20
Baseline + Risk Premium
Risk Premium Wedge
$3.85
5.1% of Fair Value
Market Optimism Delta
-$3.30
Market below Fair Value
Clearing Volume
103.4 Mb/d
Global demand balance
Supply Curve (Baseline)
Supply Curve (Risk Adjusted)
Global Demand Curve
Equilibrium Price Clearing
| Risk Layer Component | Parameter Basis | Impact ($/bbl) | Share | Transmission Mechanism |
|---|