24-Leg Heavy Favorite Parlay Breakdown & Compound Risk Visualizer

PARLAY TICKET (24 LEGS) ACTIVE

Total Odds

-106

Joint Implied Win %

51.46%

Decimal Payout

1.94x

💡 Tip: Each leg is an overwhelming favorite (~97% to win). Toggle any leg off or edit the odds to watch joint probability compound.

The Compound Probability Paradox Independent Trials Math

Why 24 “locks” mathematically crash into a coin toss.

Single Leg Win Rate

97.22%

Avg odds -3500 (Heavy chalk)

Joint Ticket Survival

51.46%

0.9722²⁴ joint exponentiation

Bust Hazard Chance

48.54%

Chance of at least 1 upset

Bookmaker Vig Multiplier

1.82x

Hold compounded across legs

The Mathematical Reality: An individual -3500 favorite will hit about 97 times out of 100. But sports betting outcomes are multiplicatively chained in parlays: P(All 24) = 0.9722 × 0.9722 × ... (24 times) ≈ 51.5%. You are risking $106 to win $100 on what is essentially an unhedged coin flip where any single random injury, bad whistle, or buzzer-beater destroys your entire stake.

Monte Carlo Simulation: Distribution of Surviving Legs 10,000 Runs

Frequency of exactly how many legs hit before busting. Note how rare 24/24 is compared to 22 or 23.

Simulation results: 5,146 Wins (51.5%) | 4,854 Busts (48.5%)

Compound Survival Curve Across Legs (1 through 24)

Tracking your ticket's live probability of being alive after each successive game completes.

Export Mathematical Parlay Audit

Download structured simulation evidence and survival probability breakdown (JSON/CSV format).

Statistical model grounded in actual odds arithmetic. Single leg implied probability = |odds| / (|odds| + 100). Parlay joint probability = ∏ P(Leg_i).