Herd Immunity & Outbreak Cascade Simulator

Epidemiological Network Transmission Model (N=500)
Pathogen & Community Settings
95%
60% (Refusal Crisis) 99% (Maximum)
High (0.75)
Spatial sorting into specific schools/neighborhoods
Public Health Scenarios
Herd Immunity Formula: Critical threshold \( H_c = 1 - 1/R_0 \). When uptake \( V < H_c \), the effective reproduction number \( R_e > 1 \), allowing sustained epidemic chains.
Click node to manually toggle/infect
Immunized (Protected)
Hesitant / Unvaccinated
Infant / Medical Exemption
Active Transmission
Recovered / Immune
Day: 0 | Step: Ready
Active Transmissions: 0
Transmission Chains: 0 edges active
Rapid Micro-Interventions: Test outbreak containment
Outbreak Telemetry
Attack Rate 0.4% 2 of 500 infected
Effective R (Rₜ) 0.75 Subcritical (< 1.0)
Infant Secondary Cases 0 Vulnerable non-eligible
Threshold Gap +1.7% Buffer to collapse
Epidemic Curve (I vs. Time)
Cohort Vulnerability
Daycare & School Nodes: 220 individuals
Hesitant Cluster Size: 25 individuals
Infants / Medical Exempt: 15 individuals
Non-Linear Outbreak Dynamics: A 7% drop in coverage (95% → 88%) doesn't cause a 7% increase in cases—it triggers a 25x–50x surge in outbreak size due to contact percolation.
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