Measles Dynamics & Herd Immunity Simulator

R₀ = 12–18 Airborne Virus
MMR Vaccination Coverage 88%
Population Presets
Historical Care Era
Sim Day 0
Active Cases 3
Effective R_t 1.80
Immune Barrier 88.0%
Susceptible (Unvaccinated)
Immunized (MMR Protected)
Active Infection (Airborne Cloud)
Recovered (Post-Infection Immune)
Outbreak Trajectory Over Time (Infection Dynamics)

Complication & Hospital Burden Matrix

Hospitalizations 0 Severe acute dehydration, croup & breathing difficulty (~10–15%)
Pneumonia 0 Primary viral or secondary bacterial lung infection (~6%)
Encephalitis 0 Acute brain swelling / Permanent neurological injury (~0.1%)
Immune Amnesia 0 Erase 20–70% of previously acquired antibody memory

Morbidity vs Mortality Disparity

The 1962 Paradox: Pre-vaccine US mortality was reported as "2 per million overall population" (~400–500 deaths/yr). However, because measles infects 95%+ of all children without a vaccine, that mortality rate derived from over 4,000,000 annual infections, leading to 48,000 hospitalizations, 4,000 encephalitis cases, and thousands with permanent brain damage or deafness every single year.

At R₀ = 12–18, measles spreads via airborne aerosol particles lingering in airspace for up to 2 hours. Only achieving the ≥95% MMR herd immunity threshold prevents transmission chains from reaching vulnerable infants and immunocompromised agents.

Simulation Status & Proof State

Status: RUNNING
Vaccine Threshold: SUB-HERD IMMUNITY (88%)
Cumulative Morbidity: 0 cases
Outbreak Containment: NO (Cascading airborne chains)
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