Himalayan Hydropower Risk & Glacier Simulator
“A warming planet is destabilizing Himalayan glaciers and river systems—and that’s put Nepal’s big hydropower plans at risk.” — The Wall Street Journal
Scenario Presets:
Dynamic Catchment & Dam Vector Schematic
Koshi Basin Model
Hydropower Resilience
42.5
Composite index (0–100 scale)
Annual Generation
18,250 GWh
Derated by silt & spillway shutoffs
Spillway Overflow Risk
High
Peak discharge vs design flood
Turbine Sediment Wear
Severe
Erosion rate on runner blades
Economic Loss Exposure
$680M
Downtime, repairs & flood damage
| Simulation Parameter | Canonical Value | Operational Threshold | Status / Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Resilience Score | 42.5 | > 70.0 (Bankable Baseline) | Impaired Capital Asset |
| Annual Energy Output | 18250 GWh | Nominal: 20,498 GWh | 11.0% Climate Curtailment |
| Spillway Overflow Risk | High | Safe operating limit: Moderate | Excess Monsoonal Inflow |
| Sediment Wear Index | Severe | Standard Maintenance < 8.0 Mt | Critical Quartz Abrasion |
| Economic Loss Exposure | $680M | Contingency Reserve: $250M | Unhedged Downside |
Model Engineering & Hydrological Dynamics
The Himalayan river network (Koshi, Gandaki, Karnali) relies heavily on run-of-river (RoR) hydroelectric plants. Under climate warming (+2.4°C), glacial retreat rapidly expands dangerous moraine-dammed glacial lakes (e.g., Tsho Rolpa, Imja Tsho). Rising monsoon variability combined with GLOF pulses carries catastrophic sediment loads (>12 Mt/yr), which severely sandblasts pelton and francis runner blades while overwhelming spillways designed for historical 100-year flood levels.