Strait of Hormuz Tanker Reroute & Maritime Risk Simulator
Evaluate daily barrel deficit, bypass pipeline ceilings, VLCC Cape circumnavigation fuel costs, and freight war surcharges under Persian Gulf disruption.
| Routing Vector | Transit Distance | Voyage Duration | Bunker Fuel Burn | War Risk Surcharge | Total Freight Outlay | Effective $/bbl |
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Geopolitical & Oceanographic Chokepoint Physics
The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most critical oil transit chokepoint, bounded by Iran to the north and Oman/UAE to the south. At its narrowest, the shipping channel consists of two 2-mile-wide navigation lanes separated by a 2-mile buffer zone.
Unlike pipeline grids, supertanker traffic cannot instantly divert: a loaded VLCC draws up to 21 meters of draft and requires miles to maneuver. Even partial mining threats, anti-ship ballistic missile alerts, or fast-boat harassment immediately triggers Lloyd's Joint War Committee breaches, skyrocketing insurance or pausing charter contracts entirely.
Bypass Limits & The Cape Cape-Circumnavigation Penalty
Only Saudi Arabia and the UAE possess operational bypass pipelines circumventing Hormuz: Saudi Aramco's East-West Petroline (5.0 Mb/d nameplate, ~2.8 Mb/d uncommitted spare) ending at Yanbu on the Red Sea, and Abu Dhabi's ADCOP (1.5–1.8 Mb/d) linking Habshan to Fujairah.
When Hormuz traffic is forced around the Cape of Good Hope, a round-trip voyage to northwest Europe expands from ~12,500 nautical miles to over 22,000 nautical miles—adding 15 to 19 days at sea. This absorbs vast tanker ton-mile capacity, causing global vessel shortages and multiplying bunker fuel consumption by over 900 metric tons per leg.