Strait of Hormuz Diplomatic & Economic Impact Matrix

Iranian Demands (U.S. Concessions)

1. End U.S. Naval Blockade

Removes U.S. Fifth Fleet maritime patrol friction; re-opens free Persian Gulf transit.

2. Full Economic Sanctions Relief

Unlocks Iranian oil exports (~1.8M bpd return) and international banking networks.

3. Strait transit Toll Payments

Imposes $2.50/barrel Iranian sovereign toll on foreign tanker traffic through Hormuz.

4. War Damage Compensation

Direct financial reparations ($50B asset transfer), reducing Iranian military escalation posture.

Market Baseline Variables

Baseline Brent Crude Price $78.50 /bbl

Daily Vessel Transit Count 85 tankers/day

War Risk Insurance Multiplier 1.45x

Policy Evidence Brief

Generate structured policy evaluation data based on current concession configurations.

Formula Methodology:
• Disruption (M bpd) = Baseline (21M bpd) × Blockade Risk Factor - Sanctions Relief Hydrocarbon Delta.
• VLCC Rate ($/day) = Base ($45k) × Insurance Risk × Toll Drag + Disruption Delta.
• Friction ($B/day) = Transit Tolls + Ins. Surcharge + Disruption Value ($ Disrupted Barrels × Oil Price).

Spatial & Economic State Data

Parameter / Metric	Simulated Value
Active Concessions Count	0 / 4
Simulated Crude Price	$0.00 /bbl
Effective VLCC Charter	$0 /day
Daily Total Disruption	0.00 M bpd
Total Daily Trade Friction	$0.00 Billion