Scenario Regimes
Corridor Levers
11.2 Mbpd
4.1 Mbpd
175 bps
6.5 Days
Bypass Pipeline Infrastructures
Saudi East-West (Petroline - Yanbu)
Cap: 5.0 Mbpd
UAE ADCOP (Habshan - Fujairah)
Cap: 1.5 Mbpd
Max overland mitigation capacity is 6.5 Mbpd of 20.5 Mbpd baseline.
Global Crude Market Impact
NET DEFICIT
5.20
Million bpd shortfall
SHORTFALL %
5.1%
Of global 102M bpd
BRENT RISK SPREAD
+$8.45
Implied USD/bbl surge
VLCC FREIGHT INDEX
2.85x
Multiplier over base
Partial escorted reopening recovers 11.2M bpd of 20.5M bpd baseline flow, with bypass pipelines absorbing 4.1M bpd, leaving a 5.2M bpd net global supply deficit and an estimated $8.45/bbl geopolitical risk premium.
Deficit vs Brent Risk Curve
Live Flow Balances
Strait Marine Flow:
11.2 Mbpd
Overland Diversion:
4.1 Mbpd
Net Global Deficit:
5.2 Mbpd