Hormuz Prediction Market & Shipping Risk Simulator

Strait of Hormuz Transit (Primary)

Cape of Good Hope Bypass (Reroute)

Choke Point Escalation Zone

Prediction & Risk Parameters Polymarket Grounding

Agreement Probability (US-Iran) 22%

Vessel Class & Charter Basis VLCC (2M Bbls)

Routing Strategy

Security & Scenario Toggles

Live Maritime Telemetry STABLE TRANSIT

Daily Risk Premium Delta $1.12M / day War Risk: 0.75%

Rerouting Transit Delay +13.2 days Dist: +4,600 NM

Voyage Fuel Burn Cost $480,000 Bunkers: $620 / MT

Implied Brent Crude Spot $86.42 / bbl Baseline: $82.50

Risk Assessment Proof Engine Ready

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