Bayesian & Market Inputs
Polymarket: 28%
Base Contract Odds (Prior P(A))
28.0%
Days Remaining to Expiry
20 Days
Strait Baseline Transit Flow
21.0 MBPD
Bayesian Event News Signals
Likelihood Ratio
Posterior Risk Summary
Updated Odds
44.9%
Expected Share Value
$0.45
Risk-Adj Flow
18.2 MBPD
Implied Vol Index
64.2
Probability Decay Curve & Posterior Projection
D3 Interactive Forecast
Strait of Hormuz Maritime Risk Vector
Regime: De-escalation Risk
Polymarket $0.28 YES Share Sensitivity Matrix
Impact on Crude & Shipping Rates
| Posterior Odds | Share Payoff Delta | Crude Futures Impact | Shipping Spot Rate Change |
|---|