Sports Analytics Lab • @PardonMyTake Source Grounding

Houston Catch Probability & Game Win Matrix

Quantifying high-leverage acrobatic catches, route depths, defensive pressure, and win expectancy swings.

Catch Probability
18.3%
Route Depth 28y • 0.8y sep
Win Probability Swing
+30.7%
From 48.5% → 79.2%
Leverage Index (LI)
4.82
Critical 3rd & Late Q4 Situation
Clutch Rating
Elite (Top 2%)
Difficulty: 9.4 / 10.0
Play Scenario Builder
Houston Clutch Catch
Route Depth (Air Yards) 28 yds
Defensive Separation 0.8 yds
Pass Rush Time to Pressure 2.4 s
Defensive Coverage Shell
Starting Win Probability 48.5%
Resulting Win Probability 79.2%
Analytics Assessment
Low-probability deep reception resulting in a massive +30.7% win expectancy shift.
Catch Probability Matrix • D3 Spatial Curve
Interactive Trajectory Mapping
Extremely Difficult (< 25%)
Contested (25% – 50%)
High Probability (> 50%)
Current Scenario
Game Win Expectancy Delta +30.7%
Pre-Snap: 48.5% Post-Catch: 79.2%

Historical Houston Clutch Catch Database

Click any row to test play parameters inside the interactive probability matrix.

5 Evaluated Play Fixtures
Play Name Target Depth Coverage Catch Prob WP Swing Leverage Action
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